[kyleb]

I'm the forum jerk; you'll get used to it.

Anyway, Carmona is probably due for some regression (mitigated by the possible move of Asdrubal to SS and Peralta to 2b - or better yet, Peralta to 3b and Barfield at 2b) because he relies heavily on the defense to convert outs. Sabathia sports a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate; his component ERA is going to be lower because of those factors alone.

Carmona does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, and it's hard to hit a home run on a ball that can't leave the infield, but at the end of the day the ball is still being put into play and thus his ERA is reliant on defense, which is subject to variance.

I'd pick Sabathia over Beckett. The value you get out of him throwing more innings per game is worth way more than Beckett's better stats.