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Old 12-01-2007, 10:16 PM
Raxxmataxx Raxxmataxx is offline
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 70
Default Re: Stud8 - (AA)K facing reraise from Q door

For instance, suppose we're up against the following line up:

Ah Ad Kh 5s Td
Qd Jh Qh 7s 3s
6c 3h 4h 5c Qc
5h 4d 7d 2h Kc

Ie, two lowdraws and one with open-ended straight possibilities. By getting rid of the other high hand we increase our equity from 24% to 33%. If we don't succeed in that we lose a tiny bit, but nothing worth crying over.

If we're up against a four-flush and four-low we change our equity from 18% to 29% by thinning the field.

If we're up against two lowdraws without good high possibilities we have 30% equity in a four-way pot and increase that to frickin' 45% by isolating against the lows.

If we're up against trips, we're obviously destroyed. But for that to be true someone has to have trips with one queen dead, parleyed with them changing from pounding to slowplay.

It's just not credible that Q73 has us directly beat for high. I'd estimate it to be somewhere in the 1-5% vincinity, if that. A flushdraw would be pretty bad, but those aren't exactly a huge part of a reasonable, or unreasonable, re-raise distribution on third.

There's some oddball potential in the low boards starting with QQ (KKK is impossible now) 22, 444, 55 or 77 in the hole, or anyone else than us having AA. And those situations will screw us up, but they are pretty damn unlikely.

To me, it seems like a huge mistake not to raise.
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