River bet with AA vs preflop cap
Sitting at the .02/.04 at Stars, trying to turn a free $1.50 into more than $1.50.
No read on Villain, but the table's typically loose, not overly aggressive.
I pick up A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from UTG+1.
Preflop:
UTG raises, <font color="red">I 3-bet </font>, <font color="#666666"> two or three folds</font> , Villain caps, <font color="#666666">a few folds </font>, BB calls, UTG calls, I call.
This can't be bad, can it?
Flop:
4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG checks, <font color="red"> I lead </font>, Villain raises, one caller, UTG <font color="#666666"> folds </font>. <font color="red"> I 3-bet </font>, Villain calls, third guy calls.
I figure QQ is capping here, so I have to put him on KK, JJ, AK, maybe AQ. Maybe even something like 99+, but I don't have the kind of read to narrow Villain's holdings down any further. I'm not really concerned with the second caller, as the board is pretty dry.
Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">I lead </font>, Villain calls, third player drops.
Pretty straight forward bet.
River: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">I bet </font>...
...even though AK just got there, and so did lots of two-pair type hands, although I'm not sure Villain would be capping with those.
Is this a typical river bet against an unknown? First two thirds of the hand is pretty standard, but I think I'm getting called enough by inferior hands often enough to make this lead +EV. The only really problem is that I can't put the Villain on a hand where he caps pf with something I can beat.
-Q
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