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Old 10-12-2007, 06:10 PM
flight2q flight2q is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: waking up with cowboys
Posts: 379
Default Re: all in luck calculator

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I'm guessing this is the way people like stinkypete and me get the all-in luck adjusted equity the way we want it:

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Okay, with some investigation, I can answer my own question. The all-in on river check box on Game Analysis Graphs tab does not do what we want. It throws in some equity based on the cards held and bets placed on earlier streets - well, should be no surprise since this is the tao of that tab. But if used to adjust the win rate estimator it makes it biased.

What we want is an unbiased estimator with as much power as we can get. The actual win rate is an unbiased estimator, but we already know that. The simple way to avoid bias is to adjust using the all-in situations. The Luck Graphs tab doesn't provide the unbiased estimator with the most predictive power. We want an option to include entire pot amount (less rake) instead of just the betting on one street in Luck Graphs tab. That provides the most powerful unbiased estimator possible from restricting ourselves to the all-in situations.
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