[Lord_Strife]

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Ironically throughout all this discussion about the actual odds of me winning one, I figured at some point Nate probably saw this and sent me a private message. If you recall earlier in this thread Nate said this:
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Strife--

Dude, you could have gotten action from me. I totally understand that your goal is to play until you win. Let's just say that I think you're not 100% to do that.

But good luck and all.

--Nate

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A couple of days ago I PMed him looking for action and he responded with this gem that got me to chuckle:

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Strife--

OK, sorry it took me a while to get back to you.

I've done some math on the subject, and I can't book the bet unless (a) there's some way to be sure that it's just you on the account and (b) unless I get at least 7-1 odds. I feel pretty bad about this, because when I crunched the numbers harder I saw that things were more in your favor than I'd expected. (More explicitly: I saw that more 4/180's go off than I'd remembered.)

Anyhow, please accept my apologies if I've wasted your time. And good luck.

All my best,

--Nate

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Um... excuse me? I was looking for action but no way in hell am I giving up 7:1 odds to do so. I do not win one 6/7 sessions, that's just crazy talk.

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Strife--

You said you'd be able to play for like >40 hours, many of which are during peak hours. I took pen to paper and estimated the probability that you'd win one. It was higher than I'd previously guessed, but lower than I thought you'd think. (You'd talked like it was a certainty.) And, of course, I was willing to move from the 7-1 line.

--Nate

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Did you factor in how difficult it is to 12 table and how difficult it is to play after 12 hours? Fatigue and concentration is gonna suck hardcore if I'm doing this.