Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
Pf, fine with me. With position I will call here a lot. His stats say this raise is TT+, AK maybe even a bit narrower. I am thinking it is AK about 1/2 the time since guys with these pf stats are timid with TT-QQ and slowplay KK, AA sometimes.
Flop, fine given the PF action. I am now slightly ahead of his range but as you noted he is gonna fold the weaker hands most of the time if you raise. We don't really have any more info since he would play all his hands this way on this flop.
Given his fair aggression factor, AK and AA make up a pretty good percentage of his range. Maybe 60% AK, 20% AA(with maybe 10% weaker pairs/garbage and 10% KK, QQ).
I think you marginally have odds to call hoping to see showdown cheaply if a no diamond falls. This depends on how often he pays you off with AK/AA when you make the flush.
A fold wouldn't be terrible. A shove only makes sense against a player who folds AK pretty often in this spot which isn't likely at 10NL.
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