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Old 08-29-2007, 05:49 PM
kerze kerze is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 343
Default Re: (razz) Fold on 5th

Collusion FTW. That was my first thought. But based on the action on 4th I don't think there is any collusion.

Based on the action i suspect K has 34, 35, or 45 in the whole. On 3rd he calls two players after a completon and on 5th he calls behind a bet and a call against two players with strong boards. Then on 5th he raises a bet an opponent with 468 up.

Seat 4, I'm not overly concerned about. The check/call on 4th indicates to me that they are weak - i.e they called 3rd with one hidden high card or they paired up on 4th. The bet on 5th seems like an attempt to take advantage of our J and is trying to buy the pot. However, he could call behind a call by us as there would be 8.70BB in the pot and he only had to call 1BB - but at this point he would be drawing to an 8 vs Seat 5's presumed draw to a 5 and our likely draw to a 7 (as we completed with 236 behind on 3rd) and he is probably about 20% to win the pot.

There is 6.7BB in the pot and we have to call 2BB so we are getting 3.5:1 on our money but we are only about a 1.1:1 dog if we get it heads up against Seat 5 assigning the ranges above. It gets more complex if we think that Seat 4 will stick around (which he probably should unless he has really butcher up by double pairing or having one high card and a 4 in the hole) but even then we are probably a 1.8:1 or 1.9:1 dog against the field.

So I think its a call but if Seat 4 raises behind us then I think its a fold because to me that does indicate that he has a made 8 and may actually be colluding with Seat 5.
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