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Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?
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Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. How is it a team as atrocious as SF (much much worse than Miami), has 3 wins, and the Dolphins none? Luck. FO did an interesting article on Miami, and how unlucky they've been this season. 6 games by a FG, and they've had the 5th hardest schedule so far this season. This team is certainly worse without Brown, Green or Chambers, but they're not THAT bad.
here's the article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3124222