[rzk]

ILP, i disagree on so many counts.
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Here's an ad hoc list I have concocted to help evaluate the merits to this value/bluff river raise:

1) Does it appear that you picked your victim wisely? Yes, Heisen is a tag.


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disagree. heisen is very showdown bound. it's unlikely that he folds less than an optimal amount.

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2) Is the river card unlikely to help your opponent? Yes.


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disagree. heisen could have picked up a flush draw. if he had tptk why didn't he just 3-bet the flop?

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4) Is the river card scary enough to get your opponent to possibly fold?


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the question is not whether he can fold but whether he can fold a better hand.

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6) Is Heisen capable of bet/folding or making expert laydowns? I have never played with Heisen so Im not sure.


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b/f'ing this river wouldn't be an expert laydown, but rather a very exploitable play. heis (and other good players) tries very hard to avoid being exploitable.


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8) Do you already have a calling hand on the river? Yes, you beat JTs/QJs/ and you tie KJ. Thats enough to call.


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having a calling hand should make you less inclined to raise, not more.

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Also it is worth noting that we need Heisen to fold a better hand more than 1/12 times to make raising the river better than calling.

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yes. so if our equity is indeed 31%, he should fold 31%+1/12=39% of his hands. this would be a very exploitable strategy.

in general, it is game-theoretically suboptimal to raise with calling hands. whenever you are considering such a big deviation from optimal strategy, you better make sure your opponent is exploitable.