[WJL]

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As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

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I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

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Agreed, there ain't much FE here, but I think shoving is a lot better than calling a shove in this situation.

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I wanted to spend a moment expalining why I think this way. Given that we can see the results, the question of whether the set would call is clear. That is not the real problem though. In fact, 77/88/99 are just the sort of hands we would win a lot of chips from if we hit. And like you said, it is likely a lot of those hands are going to call a shove anyway.

The hands we really have to worry about are better flushes and straights . . . and there are a ****load of them:

A10h+ K10h+ q10h+ 8xh 10x

Most of these are NOT going to call a shove on the flop. Obviously, J10/106 are not folding, and most 2-pair/sets are going to call. This is exactly what we want. If we miss everything, GG. If we hit, long as the board doesn't pair, we beat everything that calls us except the made straights, and we beat most of them with the flush (we lose to the ones that end up with a better flush). Unfortunately, a lot of those draws above are likely to shove if we don't, and then we have a difficult situation.

So . . . as played, shove the flop. CRAI will often just end up calling shoves with better draws.