Man, it took me WAY too long to find this forum.
Lots of great stuff in here, TNixon's
post related to HUSNG variance and bankroll really got my attention. Even though I agree with almost all of Cwar's points about risk of ruin that's not really a concern of mine. I made an initial $200 deposit on FTP several months ago with the goal of improving my game, and steadily moving up in buy-ins. I've exceeded my expectations as my bankroll is now at nearly $4K. I've had 2 particularly nasty downswings you can see on my sharkscope graph (I am FTP player "hadtogetiton"). Besides tilty play and some ugly doomswitching during these streaks, one aspect of my play during these periods was my relative indifference to the stakes I was playing. In each spot, I'd been cruising pretty well, had plenty of bankroll cushion and I don't think I approached each match with my A game. I also think I played too many matches w/ TNixon (: I felt like I was on some sort of +EV cruise control and could just let the money roll in. I think I actually had /too many/ buyins in my bankroll. After each stretch I really made an effort to plug leaks in my game, game select better, and stick to 1 match at a time. This had extremely positive results as each of my more or less vertical downswings were replaced with more or less vertical lines back up on my graph. But after reading TNixon's post I realize I probably cost myself quite a bit of value in my latest upswing. I was so rattled by watching my bankroll shrink from $4100 to $2900 the last downswing that I more or less made myself stay at the $50 matches until I recouped my "losses". I was running/playing/game selecting really well and this limiting mindset doesn't really make sense since I wasn't at risk of ruin, and I hadn’t “lost” anything.
SO, I think it makes sense to paint myself into a bit of a bankroll corner, and in doing so reach a little higher. I have some November goals I need to complete, but assuming I reach those I think I will make a rather large withdrawal, leaving myself with maybe something like 15 buyins at the $100 level. I don't think my game is ready for shots at the $200-220s but if I can show a positive winrate at exclusively 100 over a couple hundred games I want to get it on.
I’d also like to see a thread started (if it doesn’t really exist) on the keys to moving up the levels in HUSNG’s from those who have been successful in doing so. Some really generic tips I would have for guys trying to beat the $50 and $100 matches that have worked for me are as follows:
1) GAME SELECT w/ sharkscope. I think this is by far the most important “skill.” When you get in a room w/ a -20-30% ROI Fish that should more or less be free money (your win rate should really be around 80% against these guys, variance or not).
2) Overplay huge hands in position if someone value bets into you, /especially/ on boards w/ an Ace on it or if you have the second nuts on a paired board. IE, if I’m the button and I have the nut straight and my opponent pot bets or more on the river into me, I don’t care what the stack sizes are I am overbetting all in. I can’t tell you how many times he’s had Aces up (and just as often a “big” Ace that he can’t fold). He is not getting away from it, good player or not. Just as often, on a paired board if I have high flush or a nut straight and my opponent pot bets the river going all in is the right play and it’s very rarely a full house you’re up against. Ending these matches in spots like this is huge, especially if you had relatively even stacks to start the hand.
3) Reraise extremely light when you get raised pot preflop if his raises are consistent and predictable, then donk pot any flop that doesn’t have an A, K, J, or T on it. Predictable opponents button raise is often A anything, K anything, JT, etc. Reraise pre, then donk potting a Q, 7, 4 leads to juicy pots and usually gets hands like 66, AJ, etc to go away.
4) If your opponent is limping a lot from the button, pick an early spot to reraise OOP preflop w/ a trash hand like 92 or T3, then show the bluff if he folds pre or to your CB. You’re due to pick up a hand like high pair or AK later in the match, a fish will have NO respect for your preflop raise and CB if you crush the flop. You are almost always getting raised, and usually it’s him being cute or stationing any piece of the flop (this is preferable as he’ll play for stacks).
5) Bet 150% of the pot in position on the flop to a check early in a match. This has been the quickest way for me to learn about an unknown opponents style. If he calls (happens more often then reraises) it tells me a lot about what he checks on the flop, and how tricky/trappy he is. He’s obviously getting the worst of it as you’ll actually have a hand every once in awhile and he’s spewed too much or if he checks again you can 150% pot double barrel and get some really good value.
6) Use donk tactics. Donk tactics drive you crazy, and you should drive your opponents crazy too. Min raise every once in awhile, donk bet in stupid spots, bet 20 into a 450 chip pot on the river, this stuff is infuriating, especially when you win at showdown. It’s much easier to valuebet and overbet with your big hands when you’ve been making retarded bets and have no respect early in the match. Just don’t use donk tactics in big pots (:
7) Don’t call shoves too light just b/c you think you’ve got your opponent on the ropes. If blinds are 15/30 and he shoves 405 and you’ve got A6 or 33 I don’t think that’s a good call. Him getting 800+ in chips makes him very much alive. He’s going to keep shoving in these spots, you’d much rather call w/ AK or 88 and those will come.
8) Don’t chat, except to compliment your opponent or be oblivious to his insults. I like to say “thanks!” anytime someone tells me how horrible I am. I don’t know why, but this is +EV.
9) See who’s multitabling and kill them when they are. Open up their other match(s), see when they’re in tricky pots, trailing their opponents, trash talking, etc. Take advantage of these times to steal chips and CB.
10) If good players sign up for matches w/ you, ask them why they did, and why they aren’t game selecting better. I learned this from TNixon. It’s –EV for us to play each other, most guys will stop playing w/ you if you ask nicely.
Again, this is just stuff that worked for me. My game needs a lot of work but I think I’ve been making steady improvement. I’m really glad I found this forum and am looking forward to feedback.