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Well CoolStandings dot com has a better Monte Carlo simulation. They also play the season out a million times, but they have at least some of the proper tie breakers in place. Their simulations definitely take into account the tie breaker case for Detroit and Minnesota (Detroit wins the division if they tie).
I'm not sure if they take into account what would actually happen if Philly, LA and SD all finished with the same record. Off the top of my head, I believe that SD would play at LAD, and the loser would be out of the playoffs. I could definitely be wrong, as I haven't really looked into it (although I know LAD won a coin flip so I know SD would be the visitor).
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though coolstandings does take these factors into account, that doesn't necessarily make their results more accurate, since all they look at is RS/RA, not the elements. this leads to flawed conclusions, like the assumption that the cardinals are still the best team in their division.
FWIW, i built a model taking into account SP matchups. it estimates the following tie probabilities:
AL central (Det wins): 19.4%
NL central 2-way tie: 17.5%
NL central 3-way tie: 1.8%
NL west (SD wins): 9.4%
NL west (playoff, Phi WC): 0.5%
NL three-way tie: 1.5%
NL WC: 21.7%
the main difference between these and the
coolstandings ones is that coolstandings overrates the cardinals.
by the way, this is a good thread and makes an excellent point. last year i placed a -EV bet on the white sox to win the wild card because i forgot about this factor. currently the lines on WSEX's AL central, for example, seem to be ignoring this factor. if you own any shares of minnesota there, sell them! you can make more just betting on them in individual games.