Re: Noob question about pushing preflop late in a tourney.
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So, 93.2% of the time I win the $9000 pot without a fight. 6.8% of the time I am called. When I am called, I win the $9000 pot + his remaining $42000 ($51000) 31.4% of the time, and I lose $45000 68.6% of the time.
So, the ev is:
EV = (93.2% * $9000) + 6.8% * [(31.4% * 5100) + (68.6% * -$45000)
= $8388 + 6.8% * ($1601.4 - $3087)
= $8388 + 6.8% * -$1485.6
= $8388 - $101.02
= $8286.98
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You say above that you win his remaining $42000 ($51000), but in the calculations you have it as (31.4% + 5100). Is that a mistake? I don't know if it changes much.
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