[buttonpusher]

[ QUOTE ]
My poker math needs improving so let me take a stab...

I'm going to assume that villain has at best a pair but if we hit an A or K vilain may make two pair. We therefore need to discount some of our 6 outs.

So, let me take 2 of our outs away and say that at best we have 4 outs.

4 outs gives us a 9% chance to hit or ~10/1.
The pot is currently 11.5 + 7 + 14 = 32.5
To call is thus 32.5/7 or ~4.5/1
Seems like a fold to me on the flop?

On the turn our outs have increased since any Q gives a gutter and any diamond gives us the 2nd nut flush. Our outs have now increased to 4 + 4 + 9 = 17 but again we have to assume that several must be discounted. Here I'm taking a real stab in the dark and saying that 10 are good?

10 outs gives us a 22% chance to hit or 3.6/1
The pot is now 39.5 + 11 = 50.5
To call is 50.5/11 or 4.5/1
Look like we could call profitably here.

Where is my math flawed?

edited intial outs logic.

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On the flop you failed to count backdoor flush/straight combo's. I think each is worth < 1 out, but together make 1.5 outs or so. I always just count it as 1 out when I play.

I also think discounting 2 outs is a bit much, but thats just my opinion. I don't know much about discounting outs, but 2 seems high.