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Old 11-27-2007, 03:20 PM
n.s. n.s. is offline
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Default Re: Caught in the middle.

Fold the flop. Even if everything goes perfectly (everyone calls and no one caps), you are effectively getting 9:1 when you call the two back to you. Usually this would be enough to draw to your gutshot, but your implied odds are countered by the fact that UTG+1 will have redraws against you (she's got at least 2 pair, maybe a set), she won't give you very much action if you make your hand, and the flop will get capped a fair amount of the time.

The turn is closer because now the pot is huge. You are getting 12:1 on the first bet, but you can be confident that UTG+1 will raise again (and that BB will throw his last money in), so you are effectively getting 8.5:1 if you continue. Not enough for a gutshot, so I think you can safely fold again.
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