[crockpot]

NL team futures

refer to earlier post for projection links

Arizona Diamondbacks
to win division 6-1
to win NL 25-1
to win WS 60-1

my favorite play of the year. i'm just quoting widely available lines here, but i got as high as 9-1, 35-1, and 100-1. kyleb says he got even better on the NL.

teams that are ready to shock the world are always good futures bets because the sportsbook underestimates not only their chances of advancing to the next stage but also of winning future rounds. who would have guessed at any point in 2006 that the tigers would open as a 2-1 favorite in the WS?

Arizona is another pitching-and-defense team, but unlike the top-heavy Twins, they have a balanced lineup with no real weak spots, plus a very deep and talented bench. except for Webb, no possible single injury can cripple them given their surplus of dependable replacements.

estimated true odds: 2.3-1, 8-1, 20-1

Colorado Rockies
to win division 15-1
to win NL 50-1

the rockies should have near-.500 talent this year, and between the inherent variance in baseball and an NL with zero dominant teams, they should have a far better chance than these lines indicate. they also have a young lineup with reasonable breakout potential.

as we all know, betting sports isn't about having a crystal ball, it's about finding value. if you choose to pass on these longshots, i can't blame you, but i would much rather take a bet with an estimated ROI of around 100% than a 6-team parlay.

estimated true odds: 7-1, 25-1

Milwaukee Brewers
to win division 7-1
to win NL 25-1

everyone's favorite surprise team from last year. Joe Sheehan writes each year about "post-hype sleepers" in fantasy, the guys who still own all the skills that projected a breakout last year, but their images have soured in the mind of fantasy managers.

in a way, the brewers are this year's post-hype sleeper team. they were supposed to ride to the playoffs last year on the backs of players who got hurt (sheets, weeks, hardy), were ineffective (davis) or traded (lee).

this year's team has just as many breakout candidates: sheets and weeks again (if they stay healthy), fielder, dave bush, ryan braun, corey hart. if bill hall can handle center, the team should get above-average offense from five positions, with third base the only real weak spot, assuming braun doesn't come save the day by magically learning to field. the rotation includes the NL's best pitcher--if healthy--and a well above average 2-5.

i don't think the brewers are much more than an 83- or 84-win team, but in the 2007 NL Central, that's good enough.

estimated true odds: 4-1, 15-1

other bets
Pirates to win division 50-1
Braves to win division 8-1
Phillies to win division 4-1
Padres to win NL 14-1

these lines appear to have all bitten the dust, but they were solid when available.

really, the NL is so weak this year that the most important thing is to fade the favorites and hope you get lucky.