AL team futures
refer to the earlier post for links to projections.
Cleveland Indians
to win division 4-1
to win AL 14-1
to win WS 25-1
the projections love them, and why not? they had 90-win talent last year but wasted it by winning a lot of slaughter rule games and blowing the close ones. i had to double-check to make sure that fausto carmona actually failed to convert a single save last year, even though he is a good pitcher.
assuming eric wedge deploys his troops well, the indians should be even better, because they have a ton of platoon players (nixon, michaels, dellucci) who will perform better in limited roles.
i'd estimate their true odds at 2.3-1 to win division, 9-1 to win league, 15-1 to win WS.
Minnesota Twins
to win division 4-1
to win AL 14-1
to win WS 25-1
the AL/WS lines peaked at 15/1 and 30/1 (actually, the indians ones did too), but have been bet down by some sharps who realize, hey, maybe this team is pretty good.
even without liriano, the twins return a very solid core of top talent in mauer, morneau, santana, and nathan. the bullpen is absolutely sick and will remain so even with some regression. just look at their domination in
pitching rate stats despite playing in the much stronger league last year.
the twins should do well in the playoffs as a team built around a core of power pitching and defense, and one that could conceivably be much better in october than april just by promoting garza and slowey from within--and maybe even bringing liriano back for relief in the playoffs.
estimated true odds: 1.7-1, 6.5-1, 11-1.
Other bets
Orioles to win division 100-1
Mariners to win division 14-1
i don't think either of these teams are particularly better than the public does, but i do think the public underestimates the chances of an unlikely division champ. the tigers, after all, opened at 30-1 to win their division and 100-1 to win the AL last year.