some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily:
White Sox under (insert number) W
Diamondbacks over 78.5 W
Dodgers under 88.5 W
Blue Jays under 87.5 W
these all pass my two main criteria for betting:
1. the projection test
Baseball Prospectus projected standings
RLYW Projection Blowout
Hardball Times projections
Dayn Perry's MLB power rankings
etc. etc.
as nate silver pointed out in a recent BP chat, some of the projection systems are down on the DBacks because they don't do minor league translations well. the better ones, like PECOTA and the new hardball times projections, are more optimistic towards arizona's chances.
the projections are basically unanimous on most of these teams.
2. the 'why is the line set here' test
White Sox: 189 wins the past two years, plenty of players who have established unreasonable expectations for 2007 (dye, erstad, garland, thome, lots more)
Arizona: underperformed their pythagorean wins last year, lots of great rookies coming up, solid but underrated offseason trades, underrated because they have no media stars.
Dodgers: a flurry of offseason activity covered for the fact that they lost (drew, maddux, lugo, lofton, gagne) or benched (kemp, loney, laroche) more talent than they added.
Blue Jays: benefited from breakout/fluke seasons last year (JOHNSON, rios, ryan, WELLS, overbay). decline from these guys will more than offset frank thomas' impact, but the public refuses to accept that.
as a side note, bodog and the greek, and maybe others, have a LAD-ARI season series line where the Diamondbacks are dogs even though they have a better team this year. i recently saw Arizona at +155 on bodog.