View Single Post
Old 12-02-2007, 04:55 AM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

One day maybe I'll learn to finish the thread before responding. It looks like everything I've said below is already taken into account. I personally believe the range that gives 24% equity doesn't include nearly enough of the hands that villain probably thinks are good, but there's no point in quibbling bits.

Mostly irrelevant stuff follows: [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
The only straight is KQ, which is a pretty unlikely limp on the button, and you can't really count every single possible flush, unless you know opponent is a donk who's going to call any two suited cards to a raise, including stuff like 72 and 93.

You can also likely exclude big suited cards (or at least discount them), AK through whatever you think villain is going to raise instead of limp with, and probably stuff like KQ, maybe all the broadway flushes, depending on how villain plays.

After you dump a bunch of possible flushes that are unlikely limps (or, again, at least discount them somewhat), you probably get a lot more than 30% equity.

And you're getting 2 to 1 odds, so you only need to have 33% equity for the call to be good, which means that even if you're in love with the 30% equity figure, you really don't have to add very much air at all to his range to make the call good.

By the numbers, it seems like a call to me (although admittedly a very marginal one), and whenever it's even remotely close, I tend to call, because I want most villains to think I'm an even bigger calling station than I am, so they won't try to bluff me out of every single pot.

Of course, if we're dumping some flushes and straights as unlikely limps, you can probably discount a couple of the Ax two pairs, and maybe some of the others that might be unlikely calls to the raise, like T3 and J3, so maybe it all evens out.

Still, almost all villains are going to have *some* sort of air in their range, and a fair number of them will turn weaker pairs into bluffs on the flush river.

Reply With Quote