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Old 11-13-2007, 08:37 PM
Stumpy Stumpy is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Mathmagicland
Posts: 483
Default Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand

Bakes,
What about his open raise size is odd? 2.5x, nice simple amount of like chips to grab...

Todd,
Assuming you're right about the BS tells, why wouldn't he do the same thing with KK?
He knows he's heads up, he knows you're not folding KK+ regardless, so he should want action given that.

I think the thing to keep in mind about making super-tight reads like this on relatively unknown players is the error only goes one direction.
In normal situations, top 10% might be a good guess, but sometimes it's 8, sometimes 12, and it evens out.
Here any error in your read makes calling better. (Well, a little error may not help JJ, but you couldn't fold KK here.)
So you need to be really confident to go with a KK+ or AA read, and if the odds are close but not quite there, I'd lean towards calling.

I think a similar problem comes with assuming an opponent is shoving "any two." Not that it can't happen, but it's easy to overuse it.
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