[Thremp]

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Bunt is right here, I think. RunFreq goes up while RunExp goes down.

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Thats what I got with my assumptions, I'm not sure what Thremp did differently (he used different assumptions a little but I dont think that is it?) maybe he was using RunExp or something like that, i.e. not accounting for the fact that 1 run = 5 runs in this spot.

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No, I pretty clearly used WinExp. Keep in mind Jeter is a pretty good 2 hole hitter. Your breakeven point in reality might be closer to a .290/.370 type guy. My biggest worry about what I did is how often runner's advance on outs.

Note: I always bunt v Tigers. This include in the first inning with Pronk up to bat.