[vhawk01]

Ok, take a look at the Run Frequency matrix, for a start. With runners on 1st and 2nd with no one out (the current situation) you will score 1 or more runs (the only thing we care about) 64.1% of the time. We have 4 possible outcomes. The hitter swings away and gets a hit (we'll assume for simplicity that ALL hits score him), he could swing away and get out, he could bunt and succeed, or he could bunt and fail. Lets take a look at these outcomes and their impact on how many runs we score.

Swing and Hit: Win the game.
Swing and get out: 42.6% to win if runners stay, 69.5% to win if runners advance, 26.3% to win if he GIDP.
Bunt and succeed: 69.5% to win
Bunt and fail: 42.6% to win.

So, now you need your assumptions. What is the BA for the 2 hitter? What is his successful bunt percentage? Take guesses at these, and you can quickly figure out what your EV is in each choice. If he is a .300 hitter, and he GIDP 10% of the time, and he hits a deep enough fly ball another 10% of the time, you have .30(1)+.10(.263)+.10(.695)+.5(.426)=61% to win if you swing away. So, if the guy gets the bunt down 100% of the time, bunting is obviously best. But he probably doesn't. So, whats the breakeven point? In this case, it would be about 88%. If he successfully bunts 88% of the time, bunting is the better choice. With all of these assumptions. If I did the math right (another huge assumption). Do most good 2 hitters beat this 88% mark? Probably, but I bet its close. Like in poker, this is probably a decision that just doesn't matter. Go with the one that doesn't get you fired when it doesn't work (i.e. the bunt).

The only thing that the abilities of your 3 and 4 hitters matter for is that you can upgrade your run expectancies a little bit in ALL scenarios. This means you can probably ignore all of that, although it isn't entirely immaterial.


Edited in some stuff