Thread: push the draw?
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Old 11-22-2007, 09:12 AM
Mitke Mitke is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On a learning curve...
Posts: 308
Default Re: push the draw?

UTG is bad as in "calling station"?

BB is bad as in "openlimps preflop" or something else?


Tightish BB donks a drawy flop to three players in a 4.5SB pot. Looks often like a made hand worried about giving free cards to me. This could imply fold equity is indeed low and more so if UTG is a calling station.

Turn is a blank and doesn't scare them in any way for sure.

If you have reads that the villains peel the flop light and then fold turn your bet is ok.

You still have max of 15 outs, which means you improve ~32.5% of the time. With the bad UTG in you aren't too much behind in equity.

Having to pay 2BB instead of seeing the river for free with a draw is not a good result though.

I check turn, it's only a ~5BB pot.


On the other hand:

Now that BB first checks the turn I think we would have to assume he doesn't have a made hand because he surely would have bet it to protect vs draws? This could also imply that he is on a draw and is being tricky here. Or he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or something. Either way he is not folding the turn I think.
This could have implications for e.g. trying a river bluff if the pot was HU.
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