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Old 10-01-2007, 10:34 PM
You're No Daisy You're No Daisy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pinning the tail on the donkey
Posts: 482
Default Downswing Need Sanity Check from 2+2ers

Thank god I'm practicing bankroll management or I'd be busto. Don't laugh because I'm playing penny poker. I was at $40 and now I'm down to $22. This downswing has occurred over the last 1500-1700 hands (just about 2 weeks).

Villain is 49/20/1 over 100 hands in this particular session. I am 28/7.9/3.8 over 6,700 hands. For some background info, I am very aggressive on the button when it's folded around to me. I will typically raise with any two cards and put out a continuation bet at a passive table. However, the blinds at this table were defenders but passive postflop so I decided to limp with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Also, I got a read on villain where he raises with junk and limps or sometimes minraises with hands like AA-JJ. I had seen him play draws very aggressively and slow play a monster on a draw heavy board. Finally, he's one of those donks where if he catches any piece of the flop he will call down to the river. This is where I'm currently having issues. Villain plays 50% of his hands so do I assume he's got a weak hand or a draw? Do we really know where we stand in situations like this where villain plays 50% of his hands. It seems like anything falls within his range. How do we play against these types, do we tighten up and trap, or do we push marginal advantages?

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.01./$0.02.
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $0.73
Hero: $2.04
SB: $1.16
BB: $2.94

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.06, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.06</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.24</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

I decided to just call because I figured I have two pair and he might have AK-A8 or KJ-J9, or a flush draw. Should I have shoved? Like I said before this guy takes any piece of the flop to the river. But he plays his draws aggressively so I put him on a flush draw. His flop AF is 1.75 (turn and river AF get progressively smaller). I was debating shoving but I was a little gun shy because I had just gotten stacked at a different table, so I decided to call. Was this my big mistake?

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.54, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $0.9</font>, Hero ???.

I ran the numbers on poker stove and it looks like I was quite a bit ahead of his range:

Board: Ac 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.154% 63.59% 00.57% 86242 770.00 { Jh8h }
Hand 1: 35.846% 35.28% 00.57% 47848 770.00 { A2s+, KJs, QJs, J9s+, A5o+, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }

Comments/Criticism are VERY welcome

AC
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