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Old 07-16-2007, 05:03 PM
bbartlog bbartlog is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
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Default Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND

Good cards: sixteen low cards (3-6 all suits), two kings, three queens, and also (less good but probably still OK to continue with depending on the action) the two remaining aces and the 9 T J of hearts.

push of course to make all mid-cards fold

Again, yes of course if people will fold decent hands then pushing looks great. Only I think the fold equity here (at least against our flop raiser and preflop raiser / flop caller) is vanishingly small. If you want to look for fold equity I think that getting the other nut low draw to fold on the turn (if a high card we like falls) is a better possibility - but of course to do that you have to call on the flop instead of jamming.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand ... The fact no one had such hand means only that you were very lucky

Not really. Odds of someone having a particular two card combo (e.g. 9Txx) among all opponents, assuming all these hands get played, is about one half. Which is why the odds of the nut low being out there on any particular board are about 50/50. Once you narrow the range by specifying that one of the remaining cards must be a J, you're looking at about a ten percent chance of 9TJx being out there. Most of the other wraps (78xx) don't drop our equity that much.
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