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Old 11-27-2007, 11:41 PM
owsley owsley is offline
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Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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The general election only has 3 out of the 4 possibilities (under the current economic and foreign policy conditions)imo: A narrow GOP win, a substantial GOP win, a narrow Dem win. I can't see a basis for expecting a substantial Dem win.

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I don't see how this can possibly be correct seeing how all of the online bookmaking sites I have looked at list the Democrat party as the favorite. If anything it should be the opposite, a substantial Republican win is the least likely outcome. I wouldn't go so far as to say there is no basis for that happening, but it is certainly the least likely option.

I think that people who view Clinton as a bad nominee are flat out misreading things. First, the people who hate Hillary have hated her and her husband for 15+ years now. No undecided voters are walking around saying "[censored] shrillary", all those people made up their mind a long time ago and probably would have been active in the election no matter what. Her husband was the most popular President of the last 20 years, despite the pathetically perpetuated Lewinsky scandal. Given 9/11 and how badly the war in Iraq has turned out, a mistake like that seems pretty quaint. I think running a black candidate has WAY more negative possibilities than Hillary by a long way. The bookmakers know about the anti hillary movement, and they have her ahead in the Democratic Primary and have the Democrats ahead in the election. What does that tell you. I don't remember the anti hillary crowd coming out and making threads about how well she was doing when she overtook Obama. Every campaign has ups and downs and I hardly see this development as a death knell. I think adanthar is pretty much on the money, especially the first two lines of this post:


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A lot of people keep saying that. These people usually have an (R) next to their names. The trouble is (and, incidentally, I agree this *is* trouble) they are extremely wrong. She might be a mediocre to bad pick, but she is a Clinton, has already shown she'll outraise any GOP candidate 2:1 without trying very hard, and - if she does win the primaries - will have her aura back. To counter this, the GOP will field one of their own slate of highly suspect candidates - if there's one person who can't win a general election in this entire field, it's Romney - who has the added stumbling block of trying to distance himself from a sitting, unpopular president of the same party. Hillary might well be the worst Democrat pick, but saying she can't win...yeah, I'd put up 5K, too.

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No matter how much some people hate hillary they are seeing things in a very biased way, and that is definitely not the same way the Democratic base or middle of the road voters see it. Don't get the impression from this post that I think its not a close race, it is, and it is still really early to be making broad statements like "Hillary can't beat the Republicans but Obama can" (uh, we are talking about hillarys weaknesses and the other guy is black? If hillary being disliked by hardcore republicans is that much of a factor to swing everyone against her, we probably shouldn't ignore the reaction that the other guy is black and running in a NATIONAL election... is it just me or is everyone ignoring that because they want to pile on hillary?)

I don't think it is by a large margin and its very early, but I am convinced right now she is the favorite to win. And given that she has the best run campaign and tons of other resources, that might mean more than an unknown being in the lead. And you had better believe that I do not like Hillary very much, I do NOT want to see her be president.
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