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Old 06-11-2007, 07:48 AM
Ellsworth T Ellsworth T is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: \"Something Witty\"
Posts: 424
Default Re: NLCASH $100 deep, good turn, bad river

The thing I would like to focus on is his flop bet. Is a flush draw really over betting pot here? This is obv player dependent and you probably had a strong feel for what this meant. IMO on average, these kinds of overbets on the flop are more indicative of a strong MADE hand rather than draws, though obv this might not be the case with this particular player.

Also, and this is a huge factor with bad players, many of them turn hands with showdown value into bluffs, i.e- a player raises the river with JJ on a board of AK556 when the action thus far has shown that you most likely have either an ace or king or nothing. Their play is a total bluff and they end up shoving the river. I think they inherently know they are beat and hope that you believe that they have AK or A5 this time, though when they have that hand they bet small and try and sucker you. Not sure if this is the same kind of villian but he could have AA here IMO.

You also have to give us some idea of your aggression level. Are you value betting lightly? Have you won a particularly big pot recently with what could have easily been a bluff in his view? If you are VB lightly or have been overly aggro recently , I see no reason why this cannot be a dark tunnel bluff. Given my aggressive style, I think that I would have to call this river.
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