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Old 07-15-2007, 11:45 AM
oyvindgee oyvindgee is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Bluffing calling stations
Posts: 2,665
Default Re: Players who cannot fold A-K preflop deep in the WSOP ME?

[ QUOTE ]
nope.... sorry.

if you lose with KK to AA or AA to JJ or something then you can say "ah - wasn't ym day - nothing i could do about it".

but getting all in with A-K with that stack compared tot he blinds is criminal imo. the guy had him dominated. what was he hoping him to have? a-j or a-q? i doubt these would re-raise pre would/should obv fold to his shove.

but even if you got called by 9-9 and lost... i still don't get how you could say "i played it well - got al my chips in on a coinflip".

as i said... if his stack was short then it is totally different. but this was a wasted chance at the big one imo.

so stop flaming and tell me why it is correct to get it all in with just A-K?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably too dumb to understand this but I'm hungover and have nothing better to do.

I'm gonna make some assumptions that are almost certainly correct.

1. Mikkelsen is a good tournament player that will open a pretty wide range in the CO, especially with his stack.

2. Button knows this and is probably from time to time gonna reraise him with marginal holdings to pick up the pot preflop. This is a very standard move. Earlier in the thread, Clayton said Tran was indeed capable of this. You are stating in your post that you doubt AQ/AJ would reraise preflop. If you're gonna argue that point you are a lost case and you can stop reading.

So, when Tran has reraised, there is 750k in the pot which would represent a 30% increase in Mikkelsen's stack. Lets say Tran's range is something like 88+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs, T9s and 98s to account for random steal hands. Believe me, it could be way wider than that. If he only calls with JJ+, AK+, he will fold 62.5% of the time winning Mikkelsen the pot. The remaining 37.5% Mikkelsen will have 40% equity.

37.5% of the time, Mikkelsen will lose an average of 330k
62.5% of the time, he will win 750k

The stupididty in passing up an edge of more than 10 BB is obv not even debatable.
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