Re: Existence of -cEV yet +Equity Plays?
Might be a little bit of a tangent but there are lots of ICM -$ev plays that are +$ev in terms of real $.
ICM does not measure things like fold equity, position, impending blind increase, likely action of future hands based on your push/fold (largely due to above factors) etc so there are lots of plays where the ICM model would tell you folding is the best option but in actual fact pushing is much better and vice versa.
Regarding -cev but +$ev (as calculated by ICM and with no meta game included) I have to think there are real examples of this when deciding to make a small call vs multiple short stack all-ins around the bubble. I'm too lazy to try and do math or simulate the scenario but if there was one I would suspect it would be in this type of situation.
rvg
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