[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lastly, do you agree that economists (that was my major) are "non experts" as described in the Black Swan and basically worthless, particularly as it relates to prediction (I subscribe to this belief, FWIW).

[/ QUOTE ]


well i haven't finished or gotten far enough in black swan yet but i think i understand your and taleb's beef.


in terms of prediction, they are pretty worthless. but ironically, the use of the fundamental drivers that come from understanding what is trying to be conveyed by predictive models can be hugely useful in trading. especially where there are non-profit seeking participants.


the fed, though, does a pretty good job as far as managemnet goes and they use predictive models to think about this stuff, so that is aplus for "economists."


but yes...i think that they are for the most part "non expert" experts. i love the FDR quotation: "bring me a one handed economist!" (i think it was FDR)


as always, let me know if i can go deeper anywhere or if i missed your points.


thanks,
Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

and just to be clear, by haven't finished, i meant havn't started.

and by haven't started, i mean i've just now read enough to know that i'll want to answer your question again.

the tentative answer in general still stands: economists (i.e. us), can't predit anything significantly important.

we, both humans and economists though, seem to be doing quite well, so far.

Barron

PS- i can't seem to be able to learn how to spell rediculous. ridiculous just doesn't ever look write [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

PPS- the invention of fire and the "number" zero are pretty cool black swans, though the invention of fire i don't think is ever thought of as predictable.