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Old 09-24-2007, 02:50 AM
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Default Re: Taking a shot at mid-stakes

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Regarding a deal that's +EV for you both, this isn't a tournament backing scneario where there are entry fees or other costs. If you are a +EV player at these limits than the deal will obviously be +EV for you both no matter how you split it.

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Well if I play an infinite amount of hands on the stake, it's true. But if I say play 100 hands, it's not. Average win and average loss are going to be pretty close to the same in that case. The absolute difference between those values diverges the more hands you play. As well as a win becoming increasingly likely.

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If you are primarily concerned about EV though, it sounds like your EV would be higher playing 5/10 on your own than 10/20 where you get half the wins unless you somehow beat 10/20 for more than you can beat 5/10 (bb/100 not hourly).

That really isn't a good reason to do the stake unless you are busto and the choice is between 10/20 for half the win and 2/4 or something on your own. Don't answer to this part I don't care if you are busto its just a way to describe that if you can play on your own its usually better to do that unless there is a consideration beyond EV.

-DeathDonkey

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I really think you don't understand this situation. There's some probability that if I play 5/10 I lose over the next 20K. Probably between 5 and 20% depending on my winrate. If you eliminate that possibility, I would be a substantially bigger winner on average. Therefore, if on average I make the same, then it's a net positive. I could probably figure out what win rate I'd need to have at 10/20 with no loss allowed and 50% of the wins to have the same win rate 5/10 with losses allowed. Also, 15/30 is included in the stake so the average limit will likely be more then 2x 5/10.

You're right though. It's not all about money, but I don't think experience quite covers playing 10/20 or 15/30 for 5/10 money i.e. just having someone take 50% of your action for 10/20. If someone asked me if they should take that deal, I'd tell them not to.

PS I'm not insulted by any of your posts BTW. I'm sorry if I gave that impression.
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