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Old 11-21-2007, 05:54 AM
cryptic cryptic is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1
Default Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m

On the turn you have the option to call for $36.50 for a chance to take a pot of $64.50, giving you roughly 1.75:1 pot odds. If you believe Harrington's statement that most players bluff at least 10% of the time, then you can probably place this player on bluffing around 20% of the time. So 20% of the time, he'll be holding something like KQo or AQo or something. 80% of the time, he'll have some legitimate holding--either a draw or a higher pair.

Putting him on 44+ and any draw (both straight and flush) puts you at about equal money. This will be the case roughly 80% of the time. the other 20% of the time, you're looking at more like 70% equity. This gives around 54% equity. With the pot odds you're given, I'd say a call is fine.

However, his flop play was really weak--he very well may be slow playing a set, but with a flush draw on the board, I really can't see him allowing the potential for a free card. If he had a set, he'd definitely be raising instead of merely calling your bet.

I'd actually call this one--the chances of him holding the straight are pretty minimal (98s isn't good enough to justify calling your 3.5BB pfr). He may have gotten nervous about the second spade appearing or not hitting his draw or whatever.
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