View Single Post
  #11  
Old 11-13-2007, 01:13 PM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pwned by A-Rod
Posts: 4,236
Default Re: Why are value investor types so rigidly opposed to TA?

Hard core value investors view the markets short term movements as mysteries and don't feel they, or anyone else has special insight into them. If you want to work for one bear that in mind. Review Buffetts comments for detail, his quote about he stopped using TA when he got the same predictions when he turned the chart upside down, but most importantly the Mr. Market parable that is the basis of value investing.

And no one mentioned one reason TA is so popular. Value investors are lousy clients for brokerages, TA driven traders are great clients, so brokerages hire TA types to provide free research to clients because it promotes trading, same as they hire Abby Cohen macro predictors to get you to rebalance your portfolio.

I have had a few times where I felt I had special insight into price movements, basicly when I knew a large shareholder would be forced to sell lots of shares. Beyond that I don't have a clue and its led me to scoff at TA in the past. But as I get older I realize that some large quant operations have so much data and smarts they might have an edge over many securities, and a smart two plus twoer might be able to find a single stock where they can focus on they can develop an edge. But lots of what I hear from TA types seems too simple to be useful. I buy or sell illiquid microcaps ever day, and I create discernable patterns in their price movements because I typically push to close orders at days end. But if you try to use this predictively you will fail because you won't know when I start, when I am done, and when I was too hung over to open my laptop or when I had to take my daughter to her gym class. Multiply that by hundreds of participants and it seems almost impossible.
Reply With Quote