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Old 11-22-2007, 06:42 AM
acehole60 acehole60 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Mulderville
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Default Re: AA waits till turn

I don't agree with Gurravasa's arguments either. But I wish you would dissect my comment instead of his. Personally I think that BB's range consist mainly of draws and one pair hands together with some strong hands that maybe must be discounted a bit. Furthermore I expect him to bet a good amount of the time on the turn. I maybe leaning towards a flop raise too, especially if you could convince me/disprove this:

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You make good points and my default is definitely to raise the flop. But my reasoning was like this: I expect BB to bet again on a lot of turn cards. Maybe not a spade 4 or 5 unless he hit a draw. I'm not worried about UTG+1. BB's range is a lot of one pair hands, straight draws (including gutshots) and flush draws - of course there's sets and two pair as well (I discount these a bit because he didn't go for the CR on the drawy board to force out UTG+1).
Against this range my equity changes dramatically on the turn, so when a non scare card falls (almost every scare card for my opponent is a scare card for me too) and BB leads out I get to raise two players with the improved equity. If a scare card hits and he still bets I can call down now that my equity is even lower still.

I think this is a reasonable thought process but is my logic flawed anywhere? Or is it just better to get the bets in now?

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