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Old 03-18-2007, 05:34 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: NCAAB 2nd Round SUNDAY ONLY

OK, still betting Wisconsin, but only for 1.5 units as after looking at some computer numbers, the 5.5 doesn't seem too far off without Butch. It's close enough that I wouldn't have taken it if they weren't playing in Chicago.

The Tennessee game, I'm laying off completely as the total's right on line with the Vols season average, and Bodog's total is actually a point lower than Pinny. After looking at in detail, I'd bet the over if anything.

Also taking the moneyline on Winthrop at +145 for 2 units. According to the Sagarin ratings, they're only one point worse than Oregon, and I think they're somewhat undervalued by computer rankings just because it's impossible to play your 'A' game all through the conference schedule when you're not playing anyone in the Top 150. Any legitimate national championship contender would get bored over such a stretch and let a few dogs stay within single digits. When they've truly been tested this year, the Eagles have responded admirably and I'm not completely convinced the Colton Index and Sagarin Elo-Chess ratings are wrong that they're a Top 10 team.

As for the evening session, I've got a strong lean toward Memphis and a weak lean toward Kentucky, but I haven't made any final decisions on them yet. Actually, I take that back, I'm putting them in a 5 team donk parlay (0.5u to win 15.8u) of Wisc, VT, Winth (ML), Mem, and Ken.

Tournament overall record: 10-8-1, -3.76 units
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