Re: 1/2 halp, all streets
regarding a turn cr:
"8.5% of the time we get 3-bet by 2-pair or better and lose 2 * .6 big bets = 1.2 big bets"
why is it .6? when he 3bets the turn we have at most 9 outs (if he's 3betting with top pair and doesn't have a heart) but probably more like 7-8 on average. so i'd say our equity once he 3bets is closer to 15% and thus the correct calculation is "8.5% of the time we lose 2*.85bb = -1.7bb"
"15% of the time he folds, we gain 80% of the pot ~= 4 big bets"
when he bets the turn there are 4.25bb in the pot so 80% is 3.4bb right?
"76.5% of the time he calls, and we lose 60% of 1 big bet = .6 big bets"
again, i don't see how you are giving us 40% equity on the turn.
when he calls we have at least 9 outs in the FD and probably an average of 3 pair outs so with 12 outs on the turn our equity is about 25%. so we lose .75bb we he just calls a turn cr.
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