View Single Post
  #9  
Old 10-24-2007, 11:38 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Spewin them chips
Posts: 10,115
Default Re: Jim Rogers Buying the Yuan

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but i don't know exactly how to execute it since you can't own chinese currency

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know much about the Yuan, but what do you mean by this? You mean there are regulations against owning Yuan, or it's just not practical to byu? I used to have several small bank accounts: USD, GBP, EUR, KRW and CNY. There was only a few K in them, but they weren't too much trouble to open.

[/ QUOTE ]

The yuan isn't a free floating currency, it is pegged. (I think) So that means there isn't a "market" for it like the other currency pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

While the yuan is pegged, it is not going to down in value. Everyone in the world, including China, knows that the yuan is undervalued. If it were allowed to trade freely like the rest of the currencies, it would dramatically increase in value. The only thing stopping it is China's political/economical clout.

Eventually, it will reach fair value. But there is no guarantee as to how soon that will happen. I also don't know of a good way of purchasing yuan, but I would love to buy some if I could find an easy way of doing so.

I have read in several places that investing in the Yen is a good way to invest in the Yuan, as for some reason, the Yen is somehow tied to the Yuan and/or will benefit from the yuan increasing in prices. I don't know the exact details behind this though so do your own research before buying any Yen.

But until China is willing to open up their economy, all we can do is ::yuan:: and wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not so sure you understand exactly how the yuan is kept undervalued. specifically, the chinese central bank (people's bank of china) borrows yuan from its citizens (via regulations about savings etc.) and sells it for dollars.

alternitavely, it could print yuan, sell them and purchase dollars....it isn't the chinese clout that keeps the yuan down. it is their market intervention.

what i meant by "you can't buy yuan" is that LITERALLY, you cannot own yuan. at least as far as i knew/know, the chinese govt makes it illegal for outsiders to purchase yuan from outside of china (i.e. you must go to china). this may be simplifying the issue (there could be a ton i'm missing here), but that was my understanding.

now i know that you can at least purchase renminbi (yuan) futures from the chicago mercantile exchange. i posted the link to get them. they cost about USD 125k but only require a maintenance margin of less than 10k (couldn't get an exact quote but 50:1 would be 2500 and 20:1 would be 6k).

i also think they are quoted in yen for some reason and you may have to do a currency cross to get it but if you get on the phone with either interactive brokers or the chicago merc, i'm sure you can get the exact methodology for purchasing the futures contract.

finally, the yen doesn't respond or correlate to the yuan enough to be anywhere close to ag ood enough proxy. it is decent, but just not tradable imo.

Barron
Reply With Quote