Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
I think you're giving him too much credit. I seriously doubt he'd fold kings there, and he could have all kinds of other hands. He could have A4 of spades, or maybe any flush draw. AQ isn't unreasonable either. Maybe even a bluff.
The problem is that bottom two is so weak. With any weaker hand that he calls with (AA, AQ, flush draw) he's at least 30% to win the pot. If he calls with a better hand, you either need to hit a 3-outer (assuming no set), or running quads.
I think this is a really close call... in my possibly stupid opinion, folding is the best choice. It's definitely the easiest choice, at least.
It might be slightly +EV to shove here in the long run, but I'd rather avoid the variance than take such a slight edge for a stack. Letting him take the £14 doesn't seem too bad, maybe I'm just a weak player though.
|