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Old 12-01-2007, 05:18 AM
Preem Preem is offline
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 98
Default Re: How far will bonds go?

U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

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define recession.


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The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.


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The interesting thing about recessions is that we don't know about them until after they have happened because it takes a while to gather GDP data.

Another interesting thing about recessions is that the media periodically polls the public, "Do you think we're in a recession?"

Recessions are pretty cut and dried and are not the result of a popular vote.
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