[Aquadougs]

But when Im doing a bit math, thinks looks a bit different.

Lets say we expect to win about 0,4 times the riverpot (in addition to the existing pot and what he will put in the pot at turn) in the long run if we hit straight, and looses the turnbet if we dont hit. Then he has to fold more often than 9% of the time to make a turnbet profitable.

I think he will fold about 40% of the time and if so, the EV is 5,86.

If we just check and expect 0,2 of the riverpot if we hit, then the EV is 3,71.

If we just check and expect 0,4 of the riverpot if we hit, then the EV is 4,33.

I think its best to bet the turn after this math session.

Is my fold% and hit-river EV numbers to optimistic?