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Old 07-31-2007, 10:49 AM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Probability so. holding a better hand preflop

This may convince you that you should play more hands . Although this topic can become a bit too subjective for my tastes .

Every time you raise from utg , you have a shot at picking up 1.5 BB's if everyone folds . Lets simplify the game and assume that there is no flop and the best two card hand wins . Assume you raise with the worst hand from the top 10 % range 6 handed ; which is A9s . This means there is an 18.1% chance that someone holds a better hand than yours and will be a considerable favorite and at best you will win around 33% of the time . Here is a quick EV calculation to indicate how you can earn more money by raising with more hands than the ones you've indicated .

EV : 1.5*0.819 +4.5*0.181*1/3 -3*0.181*2/3=1.138 >0

In other words , you should keep raising with more hands from your range such that the minimal hand in your range breaks even from an EV point of view . However , I must specify that you also have to keep in mind that at larger tables when you raise , you will be out of position which may negate the value of your cards over your opponents' cards . Another thing to keep in mind is that most of the value you earn comes from postflop play so how you play your cards on the flop is of utmost importance .
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