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Old 11-26-2007, 03:32 PM
Post-Oak Post-Oak is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[ QUOTE ]
This is a graphic that ran in the Boston Globe about the predicted spreads for future Patriots opponents on Sunday (ie, before the Eagles game):

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...1_25_07_notes/

Using a Philly spread of -23.5 (at the time of printing, I guess), future opponents:

@ Baltimore -20
Pittsburgh -18.5
New York Jets -30.5
Miami -30.5
@ New York Giants -17

Predicted Spreads against Playoff Opponents:

AFC Opponents (I'm guessing w/ HFA)
Indianapolis -13.5
Pittsburgh -18.5
Jacksonville -19.5
San Diego -20
Tennessee -22
Cleveland -24.5

Super Bowl (Neutral Site)
Dallas -15.5
Green Bay -17.5
New York Giants -21
Seattle -21
Others -23.5

Rob Akers from The Venetian was the source.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt Mr. Akers spent much time figuring this. A couple of these lines seem out of whack.

Why would the NYJ and Mia lines be the same? NYJ are gonna probably be pick 'em at Miami this week. That line is not out right now because Miami plays tonight, but that is what the line was last week (pick 'em). Remember, the article says that it is assumed that the Patriots play all of their starters. How is the Jets line the same as the Dolphins line?

Speaking of available lines, these games were available on at least one site (though max bet was $500):

NE -20 @ Bal
Pit @ NE -15
NE -11 @ NYG

The Pitt and NYJ lines given by Akers seem too high. Even the Miami +30.5 seems high to me.

If you go to the long NE undefeated prop thread, there was some discussion of what kind of lines we could see in these games.
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