View Single Post
  #15  
Old 10-25-2007, 03:52 PM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,729
Default Re: 88 in EP weird stack etc etc

[ QUOTE ]
Can something be cEV+ and still be bad poker?

[/ QUOTE ] I think so. A push is slightly +cEV. But if you assume a calling range from your opponents of 99+, AQ+, then here is how it breaks out:

67% of the time you will steal the blinds: total 21667 chips
12% of the time you will double up plus a bit more: let's say it's 39000 chips
21% of the time you bust out: 0 chips

So is the 200 chip gain worth the fact that 21% of the time you bust out? Maybe if you really suck at poker.

A push from the SB that has the same chip gain is much better, because you are busting out only 5% of the time or less. You can make those pushes all night long (and there is plenty of time, given the stack sizes, to make those kind of pushes). But you make 2 or 3 of these UTG marginal gain pushes, and you'll be gone pretty quick.
Reply With Quote