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  #19  
Old 11-20-2007, 12:47 AM
bellatrix bellatrix is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: CA
Posts: 333
Default Re: c-bet this flop?

A few things to consider:


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966,381,570 games 21.892 secs 44,143,137 games/sec

Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.761% 22.85% 00.91% 220849682 8774537.33 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 38.119% 36.68% 01.44% 354508891 13869784.33 { random }
Hand 2: 38.119% 36.68% 01.44% 354508891 13869784.33 { random }


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UTG+2 has top 60% of hands, SB top 40%:

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151,653,432 games 3.545 secs 42,779,529 games/sec

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Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.673% 19.26% 01.41% 29213658 2137594.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 38.565% 37.28% 01.28% 56541818 1943752.50 { 22+, A2s+,
K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 2: 40.762% 39.12% 01.64% 59324759 2491850.00 { 55+, A2s+,
K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


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And we're quickly reaching the 15% that makes a sense equity wise for a bluff. UTG+2 has top 30% of hands, SB cold-caller has top 15% of hands:

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39,169,431 games 0.922 secs 42,483,113 games/sec

Board: 6d 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.879% 18.71% 02.17% 7326967 851126.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 41.470% 39.86% 01.61% 15613207 630252.50 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 37.651% 35.55% 02.10% 13923784 824094.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


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Please consider that you might get check-raised on the flop, too. A bet on the turn looks much more scary than a boring c-bet.
I'm not saying NEVER c-bet here, but I would rather not...

"Still got to c-bet c-bet everything in limit hold'em."
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