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Old 11-26-2007, 02:54 AM
bata2 bata2 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 39
Default Re: $5 buyin $2500 Gurantee UB - Made flush T high, HU pot.

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your thinking is flawed!! stop and think for a second. you have given no thought to how villain will receive your bet.

1. he has no hearts. is he really calling your bet?
2. he has a bigger heart. will a bigger heart fold? maybe the jack. thats it. so the bet is a big loser in the long run.
3. if you plan to continue in the hand(i check fold) the clear play is to check. why? bc a non-heart may bluff all in. he would NEVER call YOUR bet but he may bluff. thats all you have right now a bluff catcher.

let me know what you think. good luck remember this in spots like this in the future.

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ok now we get the key decision. do you think that odds your hand is good is greater than the pot odds you will face if he bets? ex he bets 10k into 20k pot . you are risking 10 to win 30. 30/10 =3:1 so if you think you will be good 25% of the time you will break even. you have to do estimates but online its easier bc u see pot size. back to this hand.if you think hand justifies a call check to induce the bluff and CALL. if the math is not favorable or is marginally so check and give up. in either case you will be wrong some of the time but you have to make practical logical decisions and live with them.


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Great thinking. Id just like to stress that if he bluffs 25% of the time, a call will be a breakeven play, but the success percentage will also be 25%, busting you out in 3 out of 4 tourneys.
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