Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
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Hand 1: Villian LIMPED PF AND didn't cap. No evidence of KK. flop c/r is most often associated with 2 pair. Simply put, will you be right about that 2/3's of the time, because if you are wrong 1 bet will cost you 2 unless you are willing to raise/fold. Further, from Villian's POV, the dog hand (K9) would put him ahead if he puts you on AK. I raise the river on hand 1.
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This seems spewtastic or at least highly optimistic to me.. and is another example of "value bet syndrome" (VBS).
The OP has described the villain here as passive. He calls two cold PF and then caps the flop.. not something I think a passive would do with two pair on a board containing two spades. I think it is the villain, and not OP, who is value betting the turn and the river here. How do we not believe that a passive villain has a set once he goes berzerk on the flop?
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