5/10 Live, Thin river call. How often am I good?
5/10 NL
Villain's to my immediate right, has been splashing, and has cb about 80% of flops he's been raising (dry boards or not)and is one of the bigger calling stations at the table.
Stacks are $1200 effective. I'm generally seen as solid, and have been to showdown once tabling bottom set.
My turn play is bad, but as played please evaluate the river scenario.
Limps to villain in hijack who raises to $30 (general raises have been $50+). I call on the button with AhJh.
Blinds fold, both limpers call. 4 to the flop ($135)
Flop:
9h 6h 3s
Checks to raiser, who bets half pot ($70). I raise to $275 to take the pot down, or see a free turn card if in fact villain does have a piece or overpair (unlikely due to the small PF raise?). Blinds fold, villain calls, goes to turn.
Turn:
4c
Villain checks and I check bricked turn (mostly due to fear of calling station calling shove with any reasonable piece). Shove would prob be +EV here, but as played please evaluate river.
River:
Js
Villain leads for $450? How often are we good here? How much more would you be inclined to fold if an ace hits the river. My line looks like a missed draw no? Villain is NOT good enough to consider checking to induce a bluff. How often do you think villain bets A9s here or TT, QQ, KK? Are QQ, KK out of his range here?
Any advice would be appreciated.
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