Re: Bad bad turn
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However I dont think you have enough information about the BTN yet to make either of these plays.
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What info would you be looking for in particular?
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Simple example: Some people will only coldcall the flop in that spot with Qx or better which means check/folding the turn is the best play.
Another example: Some people may coldcall the flop with a hand like A6 or 77s and they may bet the turn for "big pot/protection" reasons but they wont value bet the river. This would be an argument for check/folding the river.
Then again there are other players who will aggressively value bet 6x when x is a strong kicker/77/88 every street in this spot.
I dont think I need to elaborate on another possibility of the main villain just doing something stupid here with many other hand types other than to say that the probability of this occurrence should be viewed as nonzero given the lack of information at your disposal. In very large pots we both know the importance of not overlooking this factor unless we are convinced that we have the sufficient information to eliminate this possibility. Of course, as Ed Miller pointed out, this leads to the natural regression of having to also weigh in on the chances that our conclusions are accurate.
Bottom line is this, the information we have right now is not sufficient enough for us to draw an accurate conclusion on the main villain that would allow us to not show down here in this large pot. That is my thought process for this situation.
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