[BobJoeJim]

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The Oregon State game was the epitome of fluky - I wouldn't worry about that one. Of course the final makes it look one-sided, but things just have a tendency to snowball that way.

Oregon State outgained them 310-229. Cincy could have just punted on 1st down every time they had the ball except when they took over in FG range and won easily.

All-American kicker missed a chip shot, Cincy true freshman makes 55-yarder...

And the Oregon State punting (done by the kicker as a fill-in)...yikes.

Muffed fair catch near the goal line should have been kick catch interference.

Etc.

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It's fluky that they lost by 30 but not that they didn't cover. OSU's quarterbacks are atrocious, and the offensive line is mediocre at best. Bernard is a great back, but with 8 men in the box and no holes to run through he can't do it ALL himself (okay, he was able to against Utah, but he can't do it consistently). Defensively the OSU front seven is great and will get a lot of sacks and TFLs, but the secondary is highly vulnerable, and any team that can throw the ball will *eventually* get their QB time to throw and have their share of big plays. At punter Serna may be a "fill in", but he's all they have and he's gonna keep punting. I've watched both of their games so far, and having him punt does not bode well for them.

Right now, from everything I've seen this year, I have to say that betting against any team from the state of Oregon seems highly EV to me. The Beavs have been HIGHLY unimpressive in two straight games (remember, they were tied 7-7 with Utah and getting outplayed until they injured the QB. 24-7 was not representative of what happened in that game). As for my concerns about Oregon, those I've already posted.