[Peleus]

Yes you're correct in saying in both cases you have less then 50%, but because you're drawing to that twice, and you need to only hit it once.

Simplest example would be a coin flip. I get two flips of a coin, and I have to hit Tails once to win.

Each flip is independent of the other, each is a 50% chance.

Looking at the possibly out comes though, it can either be,

Heads + Heads (I loose)
Heads + Tails (I win)
Tails + Heads (I win)
Tails + Tails (I win)

We see its a 50% chance on each flip, but because I have multiple shots, and I only need to hit it once to win, I actually have a 75% chance of winning.